EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF edged lower last week but failed to break through 1.0503 low. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Consolidation from 1.0503 could still extend with another rise. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 1.0653 resistance. Eventual downside break out is expected. Sustained break of 1.0503 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.1476 to 1.0811 from 1.1059 at 1.0394.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress for parity next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0653 resistance holds. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.0653 resistance will indicate medium term bottoming. Stronger rebound would then be seen back to 1.0811/1059 resistance zone.

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