NIESR said the UK is set to lose a quarter of output in Q2. It expected GDP to decline by-20% to -25% in Q2, a “significantly steeper decline than the first quarter, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures.
“As we have suggested, around a quarter of GDP is lost when the lockdown is fully in place. The latest ONS estimate represents a record monthly decline for UK GDP, with all sectors experiencing record falls. However, the economy now appears to have bottomed out, as recent survey evidence suggests an easing in the rate of contraction in the manufacturing and services sector. The re-opening of non-essential stores from 15 June, coupled with the government’s continued support should aid a gradual, albeit limited, recovery in domestic activity.” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting