Pfizer and Moderna stand to make tens of billions of dollars in profits from booster shots if the recall of the Covid-19 vaccine is extended.
As a result of these recalls, Moderna is expected to generate an additional $13 billion in net profit next year, and Pfizer forecasts an additional $7 billion.
While the FDA and other agencies have objected, internal advice indicates that the vaccine target will need to be expanded in the coming weeks or months.
Analyst forecasts for Moderna sales next year have increased 35% since mid-March, when President Biden announced he would administer the booster shot.
The U.S. vaccine market is dominated by two vaccines, one produced jointly by Pfizer and BioNTech of Germany and the other by Moderna. The Pfizer vaccine has been administered to 99 million people, while the Moderna vaccine has been administered to 68 million people.
Johnson & Johnson’s (J&J) Janssen Covid-19 vaccine only covers 14 million people with a single dose.
According to Morningstar analyst Karen Anderson, Pfizer and Biontech’s global sales will rise by about $26 billion next year, and Moderna’s by about $14 billion, assuming the nation gets booster shots.
Experts in the UK recommended Pfizer as the first alternative to booster injections and Moderna as an alternative vaccine for people over 50 and immunocompromised.
Anderson predicted that Moderna, which currently has no product other than COVID-19, will generate a net profit of about $13 billion next year from COVID-19 alone if the booster shot is given.
Pfizer’s diversified product line makes it more difficult to estimate vaccine profits separately, but management estimates the current pre-tax profit margin to be in the 20% range.
According to Anderson’s forecast, Pfizer’s sales will reach $7 billion next year.
In contrast, J&J and AstraZeneca (UK) have pledged not to profit from vaccines during the pandemic, so booster shots won’t generate any additional profits for the pharmaceutical companies.