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Russian Crude Export Trade Is Declining

Crude oil exports from Russia have been declining steadily since 2020. This has frustrated tanker owners. Crude oil trade in 2020 was weak due to low demands globally. 

Shiploads for 2020 was down -6.2% to 2032 million tons. And so far, 2021 has not been better; in fact, it is worse. 

The global trade for oil was down -8.9% for the first half of 2021, and seaborne cargo was down to 964.8 million tons. And things are not looking to improve.

Trade has declined further since April to -12% to 478.1 million tons; shiploads were down -16.2% versus April in 2020.

May’s shipments stabilized, and it was up by 3.3%, and in June, loads were 160.3 million tons. However, month on month exports was down -3.1% versus loadings in June 2019.

Russa’s exports in crude oil by sea is the largest after Saudi Arabia. And their shipments make up 10.7% of the global shipments. 

Russian crude exports reached a high of 225 million tons in 2019. But global demand was down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. And Russia’s shipments were down by -15.1% in 2020 versus 2019.

Pandemic impacting crude exports

Russia’s competitor Saudi Arabia had performed better. However, shipments were also down by -3.2% in 2020 versus the previous year. The US exports were the only crude exporters that performed better and increased loads by 7.1%.

The most significant impact of the decline was due to the client make-up—Russia’s largest market in West Europe. And the European countries were severely hit by the pandemic. Russia exported 61% of their shipments to the European Union in 2019. And only a third of their shipments were due for Asia. 

However, there was a slight improvement in the last six months. And there has been an increase in demand, with monthly volumes rising. Volumes exported to China were down by -27.5%, or 13.9 million tons. However, last year it was 19.2 million tons down. And to the European market, shipments declined by -5% only, and the volumes are still around 58% for the year. 

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Justin N. Richards

Justin N. Richards is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator, and trader. Justin began his career in Chicago in 2001 performing futures market analysis for floor traders at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He also worked for numerous brokerage firms during that time, all of which hold him in high regard, and he has been providing outstanding analysis services for traders worldwide ever since. Mr. Richards is an expert in the area of market patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks. In addition to these talents, he provides educational services for investors looking to improve their analysis and trade skills. Justin has a B.A. in Business Administration from UCLA and an M.S. in Financial Markets and Trading from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Justin’s professional experience, education, and discipline, not only make him an exceptional analyst, they point him out as a reliable, hard working and intelligent business strategist who is dedicated to his craft.
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