International oil prices are forecast to rise to $100 a barrel depending on the weather this winter. An abnormally cold winter could cause global oil demand to rise by 1 to 2 million barrels per day (mbpd), with the winter supply gap easily exceeding 2 mpbd.
Bank of America (BoA) analysts noted on the 13th (local time) that oil prices have stabilized as Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries have raised production to meet demand, but if consumer demand increases this winter, oil prices may rise. The price is expected to increase significantly.
According to BoA analysts, including Francis Blanche, if there is a cold snap during this winter, oil use for heating will rise, which will push oil prices up.
As of now, Asia, Europe and the U.S. have crude oil inventories for power generation, and analysts predict that propane, heating oil, and kerosene use will rise this winter, especially in the U.S. and Japan.
Analysts predict that crude oil prices will rise again on the international front anytime now, although they haven’t risen since June.
In June, crude oil futures reached $75 a barrel, then dropped to the low $60s and are currently trading in the $70s.
Goldman Sachs estimates that China’s crude oil inventories are still very low in comparison to last year’s levels before the financial crisis.
Goldman Sachs product strategists said that the production increase of OPEC+ oil producing countries is not as good as expected, especially oil producing countries that are not affiliated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are experiencing facility inspections and delays in development projects, and the oil market has been restored due to the restoration of oil facilities due to Hurricane Ida, which hit the United States. Currently, there are insufficient supplies.
Additionally, it was pointed out that failure to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran could cause oil prices to skyrocket.